Mathematical Analysis and Simulation of Measles Infection Spread with SEIRV+D Model

Kukuseva, Maja and Stojkovic, Natasa and Martinovska Bande, Cveta and Koceva Lazarova, Limonka (2023) Mathematical Analysis and Simulation of Measles Infection Spread with SEIRV+D Model. In: ICT Innovations 2023, 24-26 Sept 2023, Ohrid, N. Macedonia.

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Abstract

Measles is a highly contagious infectious disease caused by a virus in the paramyxovirus family. Mathematical models for epidemics are useful tools for under-standing and predicting epidemic spread and its dynamics. These mathematical models allow researchers to simulate the spread of measles in the population through presenting the interaction between susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and vaccinated individuals. In this paper, based on known epidemiology models (like SIR and SEIR model) an improved SEIRV+D model is developed. The interaction between different compartments is given as a system of six Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that represent the dynamics of the model. Al-so, the natural death rate and natural birth rate are considered. One of the key is-sues in epidemiology models is the reproduction number that gives the average number of secondary infections caused by single infected individual. Another key issue is disease- free equilibrium point (steady state) that can help predict the dis-ease outbreak. Both the basic reproduction number and disease- free equilibrium point have been obtained for developed model. The case study for North Macedonia is analyzed for two different vaccination rates in order to demonstrate the impact of vaccination.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:	Natural sciences > Computer and information sciences Natural sciences > Matematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Computer Science
Depositing User:	Maja Kukuseva
Date Deposited:	11 Dec 2023 10:51
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2023 10:51
URI:	https://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/32845

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