Planning and Forecasting Tourism Demand in Macedonia

Petrevska, Biljana (2011) Planning and Forecasting Tourism Demand in Macedonia. In: International Conference “Contemporary Trends in Tourism and Hospitality, 2011 – Via Danube, the Main Street of Europe”, 29-30 September 2011, Novi Sad, Serbia.

Text pp, 169-177 Collection of papers CTTH 2011-Novi Sad.pdf Download (10MB)

Abstract

Having in mind that the concept of tourism planning could not be applied if forecasting of tourism demand is neglected, the paper underlines the importance of application of forecasting methods in projection of future tourism trends. In that respect, two quantitative methods were used: (1) the method of exponential smoothing, through two of its variants: Double Exponential Smoothing and the Holt-Winters; (2) the Box-Jenkins methodology, through several alternative specifications. The result of the research is a medium-run estimation of foreign tourism demand for Macedonian destinations by the end of 2014. In order to define which of the implemented models is the most accurate in forecasting tourism demand in Macedonia, the forecasts are evaluated by several standard indicators. Despite the fact that all applied methods are not capable of explaining the driving factors behind the results, the estimated values can serve as a base of identifying measures and activities necessary for creating comprehensive tourism policy.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	tourism planning, forecasting, quantitative methods, tourism demand, Macedonia
Subjects:	Social Sciences > Other social sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics
Depositing User:	Biljana Petrevska
Date Deposited:	20 Nov 2012 11:28
Last Modified:	20 Nov 2012 11:28
URI:	https://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/1406

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