Conservation-Oriented Evaluation of Opium Poppy Production Potential in the Republic of North Macedonia Using SWOT and TOWS Approaches

Opium poppy (Papaver somniferum L.) has a long tradition in North Macedonia and is
internationally recognized for its high quality. Despite this, cultivated areas have steadily
declined, reaching only 35 hectares in 2022, with capsule yields of 300 kg ha−1 and seed
yields of 583 kg ha−1. The SWOT analysis shows that opium poppy production has
several important strengths. The country has favorable agroclimatic conditions, domestic
varieties, experienced farmers, and support from government subsidies. The presence of
a pharmaceutical buyer is also an important advantage, because it gives this production
a clearer market direction. However, there are still many limits that slow down further
development. Production is mostly based on small farms, while yields and prices are often
low. Many farmers also use outdated machinery, which makes production less efficient.
Another problem is the limited interest of buyers and the lack of a secure market for poppy
seed. In addition, legal restrictions make the export of capsules more difficult. There are
also several opportunities for future growth. The TOWS matrix suggests that the sector
could become more competitive through value-added products, stronger cooperation
between farmers, modernization of machinery, public information campaigns, and public–
private investment. Although opium poppy production faces many challenges, it still
has good potential to develop from a declining traditional activity into a sustainable and
competitive niche sector, but this requires coordinated institutional support, modernization,
market diversification, and the development of value-added products. With better policies
and a clearer market strategy, it could develop into a more sustainable and competitive
agricultural sector.
Keywords: Papaver somniferum; SWOT analyses; TOWS analyses; PESTLE analyses