Modeling and Simulation of Susceptible- Exposed– Infected – Recovered– Vaccinated- Susceptible Model of Influenza

Kukuseva, Maja and Stojkovic, Natasa and Zlatanovska, Biljana and Koceva Lazarova, Limonka and Stojanova Ilievska, Aleksandra and Martinovska Bande, Cveta (2024) Modeling and Simulation of Susceptible- Exposed– Infected – Recovered– Vaccinated- Susceptible Model of Influenza. TEM Journal, 13. pp. 663-669. ISSN 2217-8309

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Abstract

Influenza, surpassing all other respiratory
diseases in both morbidity and mortality, annually
triggers seasonal epidemics responsible for
approximately 500,000 global deaths. Mathematical
epidemic models serve as valuable tools for forecasting
potential outbreaks and predicting the trajectory of the
disease. This paper represents a comprehensive
SEIRVS model tailored to the context of Influenza
transmission dynamics in North Macedonia. In this
paper the classical Susceptible- Exposed- Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is enhanced by incorporating
vaccination and a death compartment while examining
their impact on the spread of Influenza through the
population. Simulations are conducted using data from
the 2022/2023 season, focusing on a case study of North
Macedonia. The simulations were conducted utilizing
both the actual vaccination rate in N. Macedonia for
that season and an increased vaccination rate to
observe the influence of vaccination. The simulation
results emphasize the need to increase the vaccination
rate. The findings contribute valuable insights for
public health planning and policy making.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Natural sciences > Matematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Computer Science
Depositing User:	Maja Kukuseva
Date Deposited:	12 Mar 2024 11:31
Last Modified:	12 Mar 2024 11:31
URI:	https://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/33847

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