Neighbors as tourists: Regional tourism development potential of North Macedonia

This study examines the potential of North Macedonia for regional tourism development through tourism flows from its neighboring countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo and Serbia. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, seasonality indices are calculated to assess the concentration and temporal distribution of tourist arrivals from neighboring countries. Second, tourism demand from Albania and Serbia, identified as key markets within the regional tourism framework, is forecasted using the SARIMA model. The findings reveal heterogeneous seasonality patterns across neighboring markets, while the projected increase in tourist arrivals from Albania and Serbia indicates significant potential for strengthening regional tourism cooperation. The study contributes theoretically to the understanding of regional tourism development and provides practical implications for policymakers in designing targeted regional tourism policies.