Geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea: implications for global supply chains and the economic stability of Europe

The South China Sea, a critical artery in the global maritime trade network, has increasingly become a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions, with significant implications for the stability of global supply chains. These tensions, particularly between China and neighboring Southeast Asian countries, exacerbated by the involvement of global powers such as the United States, have disrupted trade flows and introduced new layers of complexity and risk into the logistics operations that underpin international commerce. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of how the escalation of conflicts in the South China Sea during 2023 and 2024 has affected global supply chains, with a particular focus on the economic repercussions for Europe.
Drawing on the latest data, the study examines the direct and indirect impacts of these geopolitical tensions, including increased shipping costs, delays in the movement of goods, and the subsequent inflationary pressures on European economies. By employing a comparative analysis of trade volumes, costs, and timeframes from 2022 through 2024, the paper highlights the significant shifts in global logistics strategies and the adaptation mechanisms employed by European industries to mitigate these challenges. The analysis further explores predictive trends for 2025, offering insights into potential future disruptions and the strategic shifts that may emerge in response to prolonged instability in the region.