Iliev, Andrej and Odzakov, Ferdinand and Glavinov, Aleksandar (2019) History and perspectives of Kosovo conflict in Southeast Europe. In: Center for Strategic Forecast Bezbednosni izazovi Jugoistocne Evrope, 23 May 2019, Belgrade, Serbia.
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Abstract
Abstract: With end of the Cold War (1945-90) year, most expressed through the «nuclear arms race» between two superpowers US and Russia an impact of unresolved international relations were created, which was initiation of new inter ethnic conflicts. During the reign of Marshal Josip Broz Tito, many inter ethnic disputes were resolved in a diplomatic manner, one of them was the given autonomy of Yugoslavian provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina in 1974 year and their concerned equal participation and right to decide in presidium of former SFRY. Shortly after death of Marshal Josip Broz Tito in March 1981 year Kosovo crisis began. The starting point of Kosovo Crisis since 1981 year were student protests organized by University of Prishtina. The cultural isolation of Kosovo Albanians with former Yugoslavia, poverty, inequality in employment in state institutions, better opportunities for developing their culture and Albanian language were only a few starting grounds causing this crisis. Increased level of illiteracy among Kosovo Albanians and the lack of financial resources and poverty were increased the intensity of nationalistic mood and feeling of Kosovo Albanians on a daily basis. The crisis ends with deaths of several members from military-police forces, but on other hand, with a prison sentence of over 10 years for organizers and perpetrators of criminal acts in these student demonstrations. Kosovo conflict from 1999 year represents an interethnic conflict between ethnic Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo. In order to be able to analyze this interethnic conflict in details in the introduction part and initial chapters, we will analyze starting premises or reasons for beginning of this conflict. In this section we will analyze the history of Kosovo and significance of Kosovo for both ethnic groups. In the second chapter of the paper, we will make a historical chronology that will be presented through the demographic picture of Kosovo after the end of World War II (1941-1945) year until present days. In the census documents of 1948 year it can be easily concluded that from the total population which lived in Kosovo, almost 1/3 are Serbs, while 2/3 are Albanians. This ratio is continuously changing, so during the Kosovo crisis of 1981 year, 77.4% of total population was Albanians, and 13.2% of Serbs. After Kosovo crisis of 1981 year an interethnic conflict between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo was revived in the late 1990’s. During 24 March 1999, NATO launched Operation Allied Force in which the allied forces and planners of overall operation expected that air operations will be successfully concluded within a few days. In the event, NATO’s military effort lasted for over two months. In this exercise in military coercion, United States publicly ruled out, at the start, the idea of committing forces to a land invasion of Kosovo. When the FRY refused to be cowed by the air onslaught, this called into question NATO’s strategy of what some had called «immaculate coercion». After the interethnic conflict in Kosovo since 1999 year, proportion of ethnic Albanians in relation to Serbs drastically changes, namely 92.9% of total population were Albanians, and less than 2% were Serbs. The above numerical indicators show us that interethnic intolerance between these two ethnicities lasts for more than half a century. In the paper, a detailed analysis will be make with use of historical method on causative indicators and with analyzing numerical indicators represented with dependent and independent variables, which are the past years and number of population in Kosovo in current years by ethnic groups of nations. This will give us entire picture of causes and consequences for this interethnic conflict. The final analysis from the numerical indicators, represented with independent variables, trough the past years from end of the Second World War to present days, as well as dependent variables represented with changes or decreasing number on percentage of Serbs as an ethnic community in Kosovo, we will analyze through modern linear scientific method Pearson coefficient of correlation, which is one the most modern and popular scientific methods which was created and implemented, firstly in Oxford University. The Pearson coefficient of correlation between independent and dependent variable is applied in social sciences in order to give a positive or negative answer to main hypothesis of this paper, which is «What are the main indicators for reduction on percentage of Serbs living in Kosovo for last three to four decades». Scientific indicators which will arise from application of above mention scientific methods will serve us for better conclusive observations and recommendations and for comprehensively improvements of future perspectives in Kosovo as: inter ethnic coexistence, returning of Serbs ethnicity to their homeland, protection of historical and cultural heritage and other factors which will prevent escalation of some future crises and conflicts.
Keywords: history, perspectives, demography, Kosovo conflict, Southeast Europe
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Engineering and Technology > Civil engineering |
| Divisions: | Military Academy |
| Depositing User: | Aleksandar Glavinov |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Dec 2019 10:39 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Dec 2019 10:39 |
| URI: | https://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/23111 |
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