Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models

Petrevska, Biljana (2017) Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models. Economic Research, 30 (1). pp. 939-950. ISSN 1848-9664

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The paper provides a short-run estimation of international tourism demand focusing on the case of FYR Macedonia. For that purpose, the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied and several alternative specifications are tested in the modelling of original time series, international tourist arrivals recorded in the period 1956-2013. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1), as most suitable for forecasting. According to the research findings, a 13.9% increase of the international tourist arrivals is expected by 2018. The forecasted values of the chosen model can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan of the country.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Box-Jenkins methodology; Forecasting; Short-run estimation; Tourism demand.
Subjects: Social Sciences > Economics and business
Divisions: Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics
Depositing User: Biljana Petrevska
Date Deposited: 23 May 2017 11:09
Last Modified: 23 May 2017 11:09

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