Estimating tourism demand: the case of FYROM

Petrevska, Biljana (2013) Estimating tourism demand: the case of FYROM. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 8 (1). pp. 199-212. ISSN 1792-6521

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Abstract

The paper underlines the importance of applying forecasting methods in estimation of tourism trends. In this respect, two quantitative methods were used: (1) the method of exponential smoothing, through two of its variants: Double Exponential Smoothing and the Holt-Winters Smoothing; and (2) the Box-Jenkins methodology, through several alternative specifications. The result of the research is a medium-term estimation of foreign tourism demand for destinations in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) by the end of 2014. Despite the fact that all applied methods are not capable of explaining the driving factors behind the results, the estimated values can serve as a base for identifying measures and activities necessary for creating comprehensive tourism policy.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Estimating; Quantitative methods; Tourism demand; FYROM
Subjects: Social Sciences > Economics and business
Divisions: Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics
Depositing User: Biljana Petrevska
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2014 14:12
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2014 14:12
URI: http://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/8632

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