Forecasting International Tourism Demand: the Evidence of Macedonia

Petrevska, Biljana (2012) Forecasting International Tourism Demand: the Evidence of Macedonia. UTMS Journal of Economics, 3 (1). pp. 45-55. ISSN 1857-6974

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The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25 % increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: forecasting, Box-Jenkins methodology, international tourism demand, Macedonia.
Subjects: Social Sciences > Other social sciences
Divisions: Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics
Depositing User: Biljana Petrevska
Date Deposited: 12 Nov 2012 10:03
Last Modified: 12 Nov 2012 10:05

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