Planning and Estimating Tourism Demand - The Case of Macedonia

Petrevska, Biljana and Kjosev, Saso (2012) Planning and Estimating Tourism Demand - The Case of Macedonia. In: First International Tourism Conference BITCO 2012 “Contemporary Tourism: Wishes & Opportunities”, 22-24 March 2012, Belgrade, Serbia.

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Abstract

This paper underlines the importance of planning process and estimation of tourism demand which is a foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. Due to the fact that the concept of tourism planning could not be applied if forecasting tourism demand is neglected, the paper provides a medium-term estimation of foreign tourism demand for Macedonian destinations for the period ending by 2014. To this end, the Box-Jenkins methodology was used as one of the quantitative methods commonly applied in estimations. The paper brings out several alternative specifications in modelling the original time series. Despite the fact that this method is not capable of explaining the driving factors behind these results, the estimated values can serve as a solid base in the preparation of tourism development plan. Additionally, the paper refers to the importance of applying forecasting methods, thus being a pioneer in this issue when addressing the tourism industry in Macedonia.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Tourism planning; Estimation; Box-Jenkins methodology; Tourism demand; Macedonia
Subjects: Social Sciences > Economics and business
Social Sciences > Other social sciences
Divisions: Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics
Depositing User: Biljana Petrevska
Date Deposited: 20 Nov 2012 08:12
Last Modified: 20 Nov 2012 08:12
URI: http://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/id/eprint/1390

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